Sunday, March 13, 2011

Sensex outlook for the week and some largecaps

The past week was quite eventful. The tsunami and earthquake disasters hit Japan and it was one of the biggest one in the past several years. Huge losses were incurred in terms of lives and property and thousands becoming homeless. When news last came in, there were reports of radiation leaks at nuclear reactors which forced the authorities to evacuate people from those zones on a massive scale.
Situation on the Libyan front still weighs large on the crude prices.
The sensex shed 312 points (about 1.6%) weekly loss and closed at 18174. Major Asian markets closed in red at the weekend on the news of the Japanese event.
On the home front, the IIP numbers of Jan showed that Industrial activity rose by only 3.7% in Jan.
Food inflation fell to 9.52% from 10.39% which indicates that the RBI may continue with its monetary tightening stance on the 17th March mid-quarterly review. All these will have a bearing on the markets next week. There will be a negative bias at the start of the week

Technically the Sensex didn't test its 200 DMA resistance at 18800 levels. For now the second bottom was made higher in the channel and hence a moderate support is placed at 17730 levels.

On some individual stocks,

Post testing the 200 DMA resistance, SBI seems to be forming an Head & Shoulder pattern. This is a bearish indication and below 2490 levels, some more downside can be seen coming. The RSI and the Stochastic indicators also point towards this.

Bajaj Auto had succesfully crossed over the long term 200 DMA resistance in the start of the previous week but then faltered at the end of the week. But the low volumes that were seen may indicate that it may be some minor profit booking. The stock has chances of continuing the uptrend. The stock will have moderate support at 1325 levels.

Last.. Bharti Airtel is also testing the 200 DMA support at 320 prices. Coincidently it is also the breakout point from the symmetrical triangle it is forming since the past 2 months. Whichever way it breaks out can provide a good 20-25 rupee move. So one can watch for the same.  

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