Sunday, March 6, 2011

Crude sentiments

The market posted the biggest weekly gain of about 4.4% last week but ended the week flat.
The outlook from here is mixed due to both technical and sentiments trying to dominate the coming trends.
The week ahead will be deciding where the markets will move because the sensex is very near the crucial resistances
Technically the long term support still stands at the trendline. Also the divergence with the RSI still indicates a rally beyond all upto 18900-19000 levels. The markets are poised for a breakout.
The resistance of the 200 DMA at 18800 levels is still crucial to cross and take any fresh positions.
Also an analysis on the charts of major sectoral indices namely Auto Index, Consumer goods, Metal index and the Bankex reveals that they too are testing the 200 DMA resistance.
On the news front, the crude prices are again climbing northwards after the Libyan political crisis is getting worse day by day. Prices hit above 104$ (NYMEX) and 116$ (Brent Crude). There are concerns of it rising even higher on fears that the crisis may spread to other Middle East countries especially the Saudi.
Also fresh political issues of the DMK-Congress alliance may have some impact on the markets on Monday.
So the strategy should be to wait for now.

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