Monday, December 19, 2011

Sensex : An Outlook for the coming week...

As expected Sensex hit the 15750 mark in the 2 trading sessions. A recap of the individual stocks : Pantaloons, Bank of Maharashtra, and HDFC have partly achieved their targets. Coal India hit the target of 295, it bounced back to 305+ level, and Bharti Airtel hit stop loss, due to a violation of MNP norms.

For the current week, on the basis of Market`s co-relation of downward trend to the India VIX levels, signs a pause in the downfall.This pause is usually followed by a technical bounce back This is confirmed by the chart below which displays some short term bullishness. The immediate targets being 15477 (2 - 3 trdaing sessions), with a stop loss of 15250.





However, there has been no strong indication on the Daily Moving Averages, and the long term trend remains downward with immediate support levels at 15100 (based on a support channel ). This bleak medium term trend is partly due to the widening trade deficit with higher subsidy burdens. The agreement of the PSU`s to cross holding method of disinvestment may improve the Market sentiment, but reaching a consensus on the same may take a while.

Banking stocks should be traded with caution, as a lot of short positions have been building around them. Banking stocks may come under a lot of pressure due to Aviation, Real Estate, &  Textile loan book burden. Banking stocks having high exposures to such sector would be on immediate radar of the bears. ICICI Bank being on them.

A follow up on other stocks in later posts.



No comments:

Post a Comment