Sunday, October 16, 2011

Sensex nears resistance, time to watch out for a breakout

The past week was a very eventful one.
After Infosys declaring better than expected results, the markets cheered the stock sending it northwards. The broader index was up 5.2 % (weekly change).
Also on the news side, inflation stubbornly refuses to recede. The RBI has indicated that there will be no rollback of rate hikes and more can be expected.
On the global front, encouraging data came from the US on retail sales front. The scene of Eurozone continues to be uncertain.
Major Sensex components like TCS are to declare results in the coming days.

Technically, on the daily charts, the Sensex is nearing its resistance levels of 17250 where it had gapped into the rectangular formation below (see chart).
After testing the level twice in 2 months and forming a solid base below at 15700, the sensex is yet again testing the 17250 levels. The pattern appears like a triple bottom inside the support resistance bars.
A breakout above this level is likely but the extent of the upmove will be limited. It is because the indicators will start showing overbought levels soon.

The first resistance will come at the 17750 levels. If the sensex returns back to the channel, a strong support lies at 15700 which is likely to be held.

On the sectoral front, the financials had been leading the rally on the back of positive divergences seen in many stocks.

TCS mentioned earlier made a clear breakout above 1070 levels. The rally might continue till the results declaration (The outlook for the whole IT has suddenly improved after Infy results)

Some new observations:

Bharti Airtel
The stock seems to have completed a pullback from the top.
Price was breaking out of the falling wedge formation with good volumes last week.
Also there is a positive divergence observed with RSI and the MACD Histogram.
Refer to the chart for target details.


Mahindra and Mahindra

Of the Auto pack, M&M looks poised for a breakout. A valid breakout should happen on back of good volumes. Its testing the top resistance levels. The pattern looks like an ascending triangle. 


YES Bank


Yes bank had been consolidating in the downward sloping channel for quite sometime. The prices spurted out of the channel last week.
Traders should look for a chance of retest in this case rather than jumping upon the stock at current levels.

Reliance Inds
RIL too declared results on Saturday.

Technically RIL too will have strong resistance to cross at 890-895 levels. As support becomes resistance, the strong support at this level has become resistance which RIL failed to penetrate through twice (again an example of retest). The 200 EMA is also a potential resistance point there making it multiple resistance.
Also indicators will start showing overbought levels at that point.
On the other side a crossover of 900 will open up a huge channel for trading (and positive for the market as a whole considering RIL is a heavyweight)

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