Thursday, February 3, 2011

Sensex Update: Signs of a short turnaround? Still skeptical


The markets cheered today with a rally across sectors.
As I had blogged last time too, the sensex (fortunately) returned into the channel above.
Also the RSI is bouncing back from the bottom.
So should this time be to get back by taking positions?
Will this be the bottom of what seems to be a major correction this year.
My take- It may be too early to call it a reversal.

The conditions of course are technically perfect, a bounce to 19K levels may be possible. But looking at the other other global factors (egypt, crude rising, better recovery in the developed world) and the inflation on the home front (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/food-inflation-jumps-to-1705-on-costlier-vegetables/articleshow/7417246.cms), the rally ideally should not last long. The RBI intervention of another rate hike shall always loom on till inflation is high
So still a wait and watch policy would be ideal.
Any further gains from here should be used to close out existing open positions at the break evens
Above 19K, the scenario may turn more optimistic.
Last: Its not important to pick a bottom, even being in the trend can be helpful.


No comments:

Post a Comment