Thursday, May 19, 2011

Markets from a broader view and some possible turnaround stocks.

The markets (sensex - our reference) have fallen about 12-13% broadly from the start of the year.
Rate hikes, Inflation, Earning shocks, Euro-zone crises, Commodity volatility.....you name it...we have it :)

Of course investors that have sat on the sidelines by smartly getting out at the right time would be bargain hunting for stocks that have fallen a great deal which can actually extremely profitable when well researched and well-TIMED.
On the flip side, such attempts can also turn-out into dead cat bounces if back-fired.
The trick is to catch them cheap with better risk-reward probabilities and cutting losses early if the strategy turned bad.

This particular post is focussed on the market and some probable turnaround stocks.

We have been analyzing the sensex, individual stocks and sectors on the daily charts for a long time now.
When one wants to look at the markets from a broader perspective, a weekly chart is the best. It smoothens out the fluctuations and provides a clearer trend.
The above is the weekly chart of 'Sensex'. Technically, the market is seen breaching the short term uptrendline. The supports indicated are moderate and could be breached with heavy selling too.
The overall market scenario has been turning into a bearish one esp. after SBI, RIL, Tata Steel, Infosys, etc. turning negative over the past few days.

Stocks:
Hindustan Zinc:
A nice trending stock, it achieved the target the last time we wrote on it.
The bounce-back from the trendline has yet again been successful and fresh positions can be entered into.

Axis Bank: Prices are forming a pennant pattern. A breakout above the pattern can be a good reversal point for it. Coincidently the stock is at decent support levels. Refer to the prices in the chart.

TCS:  Among the IT pack, TCS has been an out-performer from an earnings perspective.
On the charts, it stages a breakout from a fallingwedge formation, which is bullish for it in the coming week.
Havells India :
Havells seems to be at the top now. A H&S top formation may be the reversal point of the stock in a constant uptrend since the past month.

Rolta India:
Rolta has been forming bottoms at the current prices. This may be a momentum stock.

Ashok Leyland:  Good earnings, sales and margins reported earlier today might just be the game changer.



Roundup of Stocks that were written about earlier:
Stocks like RIL, GVK, Orchid, Tata Motors have not made breakouts and hence should be avoided.
Some stocks previously recommended like SBI have hit minor stoploss and exited before tanking further.
BPCL, IOCL, Hindustan Zinc have achieved targets.
Lupin should be exited at current levels as it is giving bearish signals.
The target for ITC should be moved further to 198 and the stoploss to 187 as it shows increased momentum.


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